Who's Worth What?

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With the trade deadline just around the corner, I decided to take a look at what certain Leafs would be worth at the deadline. Now I didn't cover all of the players because some of them will obviously not be dealt at the deadline (i.e. Kessel, Schenn, Phaneuf, etc.) and then there's the other group that is worth pretty much nothing or less, yes less (i.e. Lebda, Orr, etc.)

Now before you bash this blog, calling me crazy, understand that I'm not saying that this is what these Leafs will be traded for or that all of these Leafs will be traded. I didn't pull this stuff out of a hat, I actually went back to look at deadline deals over the last couple of years to take a look at some of the players that were dealt for picks.

For example, here are some of the few:

In 2009, Olli Jokinen (30 years old at the time) was traded to the Calgary Flames along with a 3rd round pick from the Coyotes in exchange for Matthew Lombardi, Brandon Prust and a 1st round pick. Before the trade, Jokinen had racked up 21 goals and 21 assists for 42 points in 57 games.

In 2010, the Canadiens acquired Dominic Moore (29 at the time) from the Panthers for a 2nd round pick. Moore had 17 points in 48 games before being dealt.

In 2010, the Penguins acquired Jordan Leopold (29 at the time) from the Panthers for a 2nd round pick. Leopold had 18 points in 61 games before being dealt.

In 2010, the Senators acquired Andy Sutton (34 at the time) from the Islanders for a 2nd round pick. Sutton had 12 points in 54 games before being dealt.

In 2010, the Capitals acquired Eric Belanger (32 at the time) from the Wild in exchange for a 2nd round pick. Belanger had 13 goals and 22 assists for 45 points in 60 games.

So given those examples, plus a lot more that I used, I came up with what certain Leafs would be worth on the open market. So let's start:

Tomas Kaberle

At this year's deadline, Kaberle will be 2 days away from turning 33 years old. Kaberle started the season very well and it's been up and down since then. But Kaberle is quietly putting up another 50 point season, which he has done consistently throughout his career.

He currently has 29 points and given his pace, he should be at 43 points by the time the deadline rolls around. Yes, that's 43 points with about 20 games left in the season. Of course he has the ultimate say, given his NTC, but should he waive it the Leafs could get a nice return given his offensive output and experience. Kaberle is in the final year of his contract and will be a UFA at season's end.

Value: 1st Round Pick + 2nd Round Pick

Tyler Bozak

Bozak has been one of the Leafs' biggest disappointments this season. He was expected to be the Leafs' top center. He was demoted early in the season, but has managed to find his way back on the line with Kessel, which has improved his offense recently.

At 24 years old, Bozak currently has 7 goals and 11 assists. By the deadline, given his pace, he should have about 26 points. Bozak is in the final year of his contract and will be an RFA at season's end.

Value: 3rd Round Pick

Mikhail Grabovski

The 2010-2011 has been a different year for Grabovski. After many fans, myself included wanted him off the team, he has left most of us in shock. Grabovski was acquired back in 2008 from the Canadiens for a 2nd Round Pick and Greg Pateryn.

At 26 years old, Grabovski currently has 17 goals and 17 assists. He should be at 25 goals and 50 points by the deadline given his current pace. Grabovski has one more year left on his contract, he will be a UFA at the end of next season.

Value: 1st Round Pick

Clarke MacArthur

One of the biggest surprises this season and also one of the best free agent signings of the summer, Clarke MacArthur is having a career year. While career years are approached with caution by many GM's, the fact that MacArthur is only 25 will play a factor. Given that he could have 30 goals by season's end, he should draw interest at the deadline.

He currently has 14 goals and 22 assists and should be at 53 points by the deadline given his current pace. He is currently on pace to finish the season with 68 points. MacArthur's contract expires at the end of this season, but he will be an RFA.

Value: 1st Round Pick

Francois Beauchemin

Beauchemin's time in Toronto has been a big disappointment. His offensive output has been no where near where it needed to be and he's also made a lot more mistakes than the Leafs would have liked.

At 30 years old, Beauchemin currently has 10 points and should be at 15 points by the deadline given this pace. Beauchemin does however bring experience to the table and also a Stanley Cup ring. He still has one year left on his current deal and will be a UFA at the end of next season.

Value: Late 2nd Round Pick

Kris Versteeg

Versteeg who came out of the gate really slowly this season has really impressed as of late. He has been great on the powerplay, racking up 13 points so far this season.

At 24 years old, Versteeg has an overall stat line of 12 goals and 19 assists. He is on pace to be at 46 points by the deadline. He has one year left on his contract and will be an RFA at the end of next season.

Value: 2nd Round Pick + 3rd Round Pick

Jean-Sebastien Giguere

This is one that I simply don't know. The goaltender market is very difficult to gauge. Giguere is on the final year of his contract, but is not having a good season. His experience (Conn Smythe winner and Stanley Cup ring) might draw some interest, but the amount of money he is being paid this season might equally deter potential suitors.

Value: Not worth just a pick. In order for the Leafs to get a pick, they would probably have to take back some salary.

So as you can see, there is some great value on the Leafs right now. With that said, unfortunately Burke is not someone to do this. He's not going to blow it up at the deadline and that truly is unfortunate.

You'll probably see a couple of these players dealt, but it might not even be for picks. Burke wants other players, so we'll see what happens. The Panthers picked three times in the 1st round at the 2010 draft, it would be nice to have a GM like that.

Thanks for reading,

Patrick Storto
http://twitter.com/PatStorto

14 Comments

feuerfrei514's picture

Pretty good, but I would have to say only one of them is worth a 1st and thats kaberle, the others wouldnt net the leafs a first. But they definately need to do something.

Patrick Storto's picture

Grabovski was acquired for a 2nd and a prospect, you're telling me he hasn't gone up in value since then?

Derrick Newman's picture

Clarke Macarthur will not garner a 1st. kaberle should net something good if he is willing to waive. Might be the Sundin situation all over again though.

Patrick Storto's picture

Like I said, this is not what these players WILL get. Based on other trades, this is how much these players are worth.

But again, MacArthur is on pace for almost 70 points, I don't think it's unfair to suggest that a 25 year old with nearly 70 points can yield a first round pick.

George Prax's picture

You can't just base it on other trades. Some trades are fair, others come completely out of left field. It's about more than just "this guy got traded for this so this must be what he's worth". Halak got traded for two prospects, and most people think that he was "worth" more. The habs were lucky to get what they got for Grabovski, and when you consider that his pricetag has increased and he likely still has the same attitude problems I don't see how he could be worth a first just because he's one of the only guys with skill on a bad team.

As for MacArthur, he's on pace for 70 points, he doesn't actually have 70 points. Pace can be a very misleading figure and I doubt GMs put too much weight on what players are on pace for, and more about what they have done for their teams lately.

I think you're vastly under-valuating the worth of a 1st round pick to most teams, most GMs aren't willing to give them up for mediocre players.

Patrick Storto's picture

Like I said, I don't know who's willing to trade away a first, that's not the point. I really don't think that any of these guys will be dealt, except for a small glimmer of hope for Kaberle. The point is that given their production they are worth a 1st. Not a 1st in the top half (there's a difference). But I'm sure teams like the Canucks, Flyers, Penguins and Capitals will have their firsts in play.

I can say Grabovski is worth the Devils 2nd round pick or the Canucks 1st, what's the difference really.

As far as other trades. No you wouldn't be able to base it off one trade here and there, but there are lists and lists of trades that have been made. No one has obtained the production combined with age of guys like Grabovski and MacArthur for a 2nd rounder or less.

And how exactly are they mediocre players? Grabovski is among the leagues leading scorers, and has scored consistently this season, not in flashes.

I'm sure that Habs fans would have expected a 1st for Plekanec had he been dealt at last year's deadline.

And skill on a bad team? That's an awful argument. Grabovski has made plays on his own and it's not like he's playing with Phil Kessel either.

George Prax's picture

Here are the players who's deals have involved 1st round picks over the last two years:

2010-11

Horton/Campbell for Wideman and a 1st
Bufyglien trade had a 1st (among half the team that was traded)
Ballard deal had a 1st.

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2009-10

Pronger trade which involved Lupul and 2 firsts going the other way.
Kessel trade involved 2 firsts as you very well know.
Kovalchuk trade had a first.

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2008-09

Cammalleri for a first.
Tanguay for a first (that was back when he was good)
Umberger for a first (when he led the playoffs in goals)
Dan Boyle deal involved a first
Mezsaros deal involved a first (proven to be overvalued)
Comrie/Campoli for a first
Jokinen deal to Flames had a conditional first.

Plus all the pick-for-pick trades but those are irrelevant here. And other than one or two of those deals, most of those deals involved a lot of other pieces going one way or another.

2008-09 had seven player trades for a 1st, and even though most of those players are now somewhat overrated by 1st round pick standards, at the time they were either superstards or close to being them.

Last year there were only THREE player trades for 1st round picks, and they were for Pronger, Kessel, and Kovalchuk. You're telling me that the Leafs have players who compare to Pronger and Kovalchuk that are on the market? Or that Burke would make a significant player trade that would bring back a first?

Maybe you should have done some research about first round picks and prior trades, instead of just basing it on "well Grabovski was traded for a 2nd round pick two years ago so he must be worth a 1st now". GMs DON'T trade their 1st round picks, and if they do, they generally do it in the off-season, not at the trade deadline. Literally only one of those deals in the last two years was at the deadline, and it ended up being one of the worst trades in NHL history.

And just because a couple of those players are managing to have good years on a bad team doesn't automatically make them worth 1st round picks. Like I said, GMs usually have scouts, and usually scouts are paid to see past stats. No one other than Kaberle is "worth" a 1st round pick on the leafs.

Patrick Storto's picture

Nathan Horton, career high 62 points and 31 goals (back in '07) - will be eclipsed by both Grabovski and MacArthur.

Keith Ballard - ????, wtf.

Byfuglien - can't compare, he had a cup ring.

I know that Burke won't deal for picks, I mentioned that. All I said was that these two players are WORTH 1st round picks. Being WORTH something and what will actually go down is two different things.

You're also ignoring the fact that these two individuals are 25 and 26 respectively. There really has never been players that young with this production available, unless they've been disgruntled.

George Prax's picture
Patrick Storto wrote:

Nathan Horton, career high 62 points and 31 goals (back in '07) - will be eclipsed by both Grabovski and MacArthur.

Horton's a 3rd overall pick and just as young as your Leafs players.

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Keith Ballard - ????, wtf.

What do you mean? Another first round pick and a great defenseman.

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Byfuglien - can't compare, he had a cup ring.

So, you can't compare because Byfuglien has had success at age 25? lmao that makes no sense. He's leading the league in defensive scoring and he'll probably be a Norris candidate, not to mention how he's peformed in the past for the Hawks in the playoffs. Regardless of how many other players were involved in the deal, Byfuglien alone is worth a lot more than anyone on your list. Ladd (former 4th overall pick) is another one that's worth more alone than anyone on the leafs and he was in that trade as well.

Quote:

I know that Burke won't deal for picks, I mentioned that. All I said was that these two players are WORTH 1st round picks. Being WORTH something and what will actually go down is two different things.

Ya, only problem is, you know, that they're not actually worth what you're saying they're worth.

Quote:

You're also ignoring the fact that these two individuals are 25 and 26 respectively. There really has never been players that young with this production available, unless they've been disgruntled.

I said it before, the fact that you're only considering this year's production doesn't mean these players are worth these amounts. Most of the players that get traded for 1st round picks are either 1st round picks themselves, or players who have actually proven something in the league. All Grabovski and MacArthur have proven is that a) they can't stick with the teams they're playing on and b) they can produce when there's literally no one else to produce. I'm not saying they're worth nothing, but look at the list of players I showed you, teams DON'T trade their 1st round picks. And if they do, it's generally more like at the draft or over the summer, when they can get a full year out of those players.

No one's going to trade a 1st round pick for a rental that is not a superstar, or even close to one. Stop overrating your own players.

Patrick Storto's picture

Thanks Mike.

Haha overrating my own players? Ok there Mr. can't believe Subban wasn't picked even though he can't even dress for a game.

And Nathan Horton 3rd overall? Umm...you mean 8 years ago? So Zherdev who was taken a pick later must also be worth a 1st. It's funny how when Leaf fans argue that Phil Kessel is still a 5th overall pick others negate that by saying that was back in 2006. But for the sake of this argument we're going to go all the way back to the 2003 draft because somehow draft position there is still relevant.

And Grabovski is far from one season wonder. He's only in the 3rd year of his career. He had 48 points as a rookie, had a sophomore slump last year and has been incredible this year. Leafs got a steal for what they gave up for this guy.

George Prax's picture

Don't turn this into an argument about Subban... I said I was surprised he wasn't picked for the rookie portion of the tournament seeing as, you know, he's an offensive defenseman who's biggest quality is his offensive flare and skill. Besides, there are rumors that he's the next one picked if there are any injuries and it's pretty obvious that guys like Dadonov and Grabner are only there because the Isles and Panthers don't have anyone in the main game. So ya, it really doesn't compare to saying that half your players are worth 1st round picks when they can't even help you get into the playoffs.

ANd yes, Nathan Horton. Eight years ago or not he's still a top 3 pick who's had success in the league and who will continue to have success in the league, and there's a pedigree with that. And I don't know why you're brining up Kessel, I never said anything bad about him being a 5th overall pick. But hey, if you're going to bring him up, then I guess that proves that he did overpay since the same fucking team that he got him from only paid one first for a guy picked two spots ahead of him, got another player in the deal and managed to dump the Wideman salary in the process. Wink

But ya, Grabovski is not worth a 1st round pick, because people don't trade their first round picks for random Russian players that have had attitude problems in the past. If he was such a steal and he's been so awesome in the past, and moreover Burke isn't going to trade for picks, then why even bother speculating about what he could get? Why not just focus on the amazing superstar the leafs have and how he's going to help the Leafs win for a very long time?

Patrick Storto's picture

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George Prax's picture